June 14, 2024

Is the COVID pandemic recurring in South Africa?


If we simply look at the number of cases in South Africa, then one might erroneously think that indeed, the country is experiencing a resurgence of COVID. But if we look at their other data, then we will find some interesting insights.

Take for example Image 1 below which shows us a similar shape in the graphs of New Cases and New Tests conducted in the country. How is this possible?

Image 1: New Cases, New Tests in South Africa

It is clear to us that cases in the country are now becoming an artifact of the faulty tests being conducted – the more tests there are, the higher the cases there will be. This could be due to the fact that only those who are being tested are people who are already exhibiting symptoms, or this could be the reality that the high cycle thresholds being used by RT-PCR tests are shoring up false positives.

Regardless of the answer, it is now an accepted fact that COVID cases should no longer be used in dictating public health policy in regards to COVID.

The more important indicator now is severe cases and deaths. In order for us to determine whether South Africa is in trouble or not, let’s look at the country’s COVID deaths (see Image 2 below).

Image 2: New Cases, New Deaths in South Africa

Data from South Africa sure looks like they are able to manage their COVID cases, with deaths in recent weeks falling to their lowest levels since 2020. Now let’s see if there are any improvements in the country’s case fatality rate (the number of people who die after testing positive for COVID, see Image 3).

Image 3: Case Fatality Rate, South Africa

Once again, we are seeing some of the lowest CFR for South Africa since 2020. This is despite the fact that only 30% of South Africa is vaccinated.

Why does mainstream media make pronouncements like “COVID cases soar in South Africa” making it appear as if the country is in a state of emergency? Clearly, this is an attempt at fear-mongering.

Could this be a strategy to keep the fear going so that more people would take the booster shots and prevent the wastage of millions of vaccine doses?

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