December 9, 2023

OCTA makes another baseless assumption, says Delta community transmission already happening despite having no proof


In this August 1, 2021 article written by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz for the Manila Bulletin, we learn of a new assumption being pushed by OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David. He said: “We understand that the Department of Health (DOH) is the official body. They are confirming the Delta variant cases through genome sequencing. But for us in OCTA, we are an independent group, we can say that based on statistics, based on sampling, the current tally of Delta variant cases has increased to 25 percent from 15 percent. Actually, it was only 2 percent to 3 percent a month ago”.

David says that even if the DOH has not confirmed community transmission of the Delta variant, it is best to assume that it is already happening so that “we are doubly careful”. He adds, “For me when it exceeds 1.4, the reproduction number can be considered at a critical level because of the rapid increase in the number of infections”.

Editor’s Note: What is OCTA Research and what gives them the authority to make such announcements to the public? We made our own research at Covid Call to Humanity. This is what we found out.

First, even if the Delta variant is more infectious, it is not killing people as much as they fear it to be [see Delta and Other Variants: Fear Appeal for Permanent Lockdowns, Killer Vaccines. Strengthening Natural Immunity the Way Out.].

Second, because this kind of news will be used to rationalize mandatory vaccination and lockdowns, people need to know that a much greater number of people who die of the Delta variant are vaccinated [read Vaccines do not fully control Delta variant: Majority of COVID deaths are from vaccinated. Evidence of dangerous ADE at work, New lies revealed: Death rate from Delta variant 6x higher among fully vaccinated, and Almost 50% infected with Delta variant in Israel are fully vaccinated].

Third, given all the above, we cannot but conclude that OCTA is arrogant in their claims and have no sense of responsibility for the damage to peoples’ lives which is being created by their advocacy. They are arrogant because, while DOH is being cautious by doing genomic testing, OCTA is not even waiting for the results of that verification and are already making conclusions! The worse part is that the media is using their statements to fuel panic!

How about we ask them for the basis for their statistics saying that there is a 20% increase in Delta variant cases, before believing in anything they have to say?

This group, which sometimes calls itself as UP-OCTA Research is not officially sanctioned by the University of the Philippines (UP).[1] OCTA is a private entity, setup only in 2020. Its Facebook page[2] is nonfunctional, its website, useless[3] Both do not offer any substantial information about the credentials of this self-appointed advisory group to the Department of Health (DOH).

Also, no one in this group is an epidemiologist, a virologist, or an immunologist. Based on their July 16, 2020 forecast for the Philippines, the group is composed of the following persons:

Guido David, Ph.D.
Professor, Institute of Mathematics
University of the Philippines and Fellow, OCTA Research

Ranjit Singh Rye, MPA
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science
University of the Philippines and Fellow, OCTA Research

Ma Patricia Agbulos, MBM
Associate, OCTA Research

Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, O.P., Ph.D., S.Th.D., MBA
Professor, Department of Biology,
Providence College and Fellow, OCTA Research
Visiting Professor Designate, College of Science,
Pontifical University of Santo Tomas

That July 2020 forecast was published with contributions from several individuals. There is no clarity as to the exact contribution each one offered in the creation of the forecast.

Erwin Alampay, Ph.D.
Professor, National College of Public Administrations and Governance
University of the Philippines

Eero Rosini Brillantes
CEO, Blueprint Campaign Consultancy (

Bernhard Egwolf, Dr. rer. nat.
Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics and Physics,
College of Science, Pontifical University of Santo Tomas
Research Fellow, Research Center for Natural and Applied Sciences,
Pontifical University of Santo Tomas

Rodrigo Angelo Ong, MD
Professorial Lecturer, Science Society Program, College of Science
University of the Philippines

Michael Tee, MD, MHPED, MBA
Professor, UP College of Medicine
Chair, Philippine One Health University Network

Benjamin Vallejo Jr. Ph.D.
Professor, Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology & the Science Society Program, College of Science, University of the Philippines

With this background, we demand that the government answer this very important question: why are they relying on a private organization when none of its members have any expertise relating to pandemic control? OCTA’s recommendations have always centered on lockdowns and vaccination, despite the fact that lockdowns have been proven to be harmful. We know from many articles on this website that lockdowns are useless, and they lead to damning consequences [see Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis destroys the Covid lockdown narrative, Wall Street Journal: Lockdowns made pandemic suffering worse than necessary, also find more articles in Is A Lockdown Necessary?] Their recommendations have disregarded social realities and have lead to the death of many small to medium business enterprises, and the continued contraction of the Philippine economy.

Why does the government depend on a shady organization like OCTA which offers no transparency to their forecast models? Are they officially the consultants of the Philippine government? Will OCTA be held accountable for the consequences of their forecasting model which has caused severe damage to our economy? And why are they being allowed to speak statements to the media which are contrary to the statements of the DOH?

As a private entity, we all know that OCTA has no accountability to the Filipino people. Why are they being allowed to sow fear based on “assumptions” and “models”, while many Filipino doctors speaking out against their defunct solutions are being silenced? [4]

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