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What are the implications of the CDC planning scenarios?

The following article written by Daniel Horowitz takes a closed look at the CDC document [see CDC Confirms Very Low COVID-19 Death Rate In The US]. Horowitz says that with the current estimates (which are based on actual data submitted by hospitals to the CDC until April 29, 2020), we are now seeing that COVID-19 is not as fatal as we once thought, and people are more likely to die due to other causes. 

Horowitz then takes the new CDC death rate estimate and compares it to Spain (one of the countries hardest hit by COVID-19) and Canada and shows that the US death rate is not exceptional in anyway.

Editor’s Note: Even before the lockdowns started, we already had an idea on the infectivity and fatality of the SARS-COV-2. The WHO, which monitored the virus’ progress, took a long time to declare a pandemic and when they did, reiterated that it didn’t mean that the virus was becoming more potent. but rather, countries only needed to prepare to ensure that their health care systems were not inundated [see The WHO Declared The Coronavirus A Pandemic. What Does It Mean?].  

The declaration of lockdowns may be traced to several occurrences: the numerous deaths in Italy reached international news, Neil Ferguson’s model has caused the UK to change its strategy for dealing with the virus, and fake news about the virus proliferated online. Combined with the power of social media, a pandemic of fear has spread across the world.

Lockdowns deprived us of mobility, and has violated our civil rights, all in the guise of protecting our health. Now we know it is no longer necessary [see Evidence Clear: True Political Leaders Should Lift Lockdown], and must demand our leaders to lift restrictions as soon as possible. Refusing to do so is a blatant disrespect for democracy. It is still within our rights to demand for “freedom”. 

Sure, let us physically distance ourselves from each other, let’s wash our hands as often as we like, but our societies must be allowed to function again. But here lies a caveat. We know who is most at risk from this virus. As we re-open our societies, we must also demand necessary solutions to protect our elderly and the immunocompromised. [Nicanor has offered several approaches to dealing with COVID in the Philippines. With the amount of information we now know about the disease, it is necessary for us to revisit his suggestions. See Briefing Paper]

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