Why no one in Israel can explain the drop in coronavirus cases

In this article for Haaretz, Meirav Arlosoroff explains that experts in Israel are surprised that instead of going up, coronavirus cases dropped after lockdowns were lifted. None of the mathematical models used in Israel predicted this outcome. 

Arlosoroff cites the words of Prof. Hagai Levine who said that the models developed by physicists and mathematicians led to overestimates, which in turn, has caused panic in the country. Arlosoroff also cites various ways that the Israeli government has mishandled the pandemic. 

Editor’s Note: Almost all countries that imposed lockdowns are a victim of mathematical models [see Experts: The Code That LED To Lockdowns Was A “Buggy Mess”]. While the models could serve as a guide, countries should have prioritized the effective and adequate collection of data from the ground in order to guide policy decisions. After all, every country is different, and as shown to us by Sweden, coronavirus responses should be tailor-fit. 

In the Philippines, data collection has taken a back seat [in a previous article, experts found errors in the country’s COVID-19 data, as well as the late reporting of cases. See Crucial COVID-19 Data Tallied Two Months Late and Errors In Philippines’ COVID-19 Data Spotted By Experts]. The lack of real-time reporting has led to guesswork on the part of the government. 

It is no wonder then that many Filipinos are still afraid of the possible resurgence of the coronavirus as there was no real trending done by the Department of Health (DOH) during the course of the almost 3-month lockdown. Many still do not understand the nature of the virus and latest results from international researches on the SARS-COV-2 and COVID-19 do not yet reflect on our country’s coronavirus response. 

For if our government follows the news about the coronavirus from other countries, our leaders will know that COVID-19 is not as fatal or infectious as we once thought. Moreover, the government will also know that lockdowns were ineffective in many countries, and that we cannot rely on vaccines to solve our problems. The government would also know that our children are relatively safe from the virus, and that extra focus should be done to protect the elderly and the immunocompromised [as early as April, Nicanor has also offered a solution out of the lockdowns. Read the Briefing Paper to learn more.]